US economic growth to reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year – Reuters poll

NEWS | 24 minutes ago | By Dhwani Mehta

According to a Reuters poll of economists, the US economic growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters while reaching the pre-COVID-19 trajectory in a year’s time.

Key findings

“But in response to an additional question, nearly two-thirds of economists, or 43 of 69, said US GDP would reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year. Twenty-one said within two years and five said two or more years.”

“The wider poll showed GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unrevised at a record 33.1% when the final data is issued later this month, after contracting at an annualized 31.4% pace in Q2.”

“For the first quarter the consensus was lowered to 2.5% growth from 3.0% last month, with nearly 11% of respondents predicting the economy would contract in Q1. It was expected to expand 3.8%, 3.9% and 3.4% in the following quarters of 2021, compared to 3.5%, 3.5% and 3.2% predicted, respectively, last month.”

“The world’s largest economy was forecast to contract 3.6% this year then grow 3.9% next year and 3.1% in 2022.”

“Still, only 21% of 43 economists in response to a separate question expected the Federal Reserve to announce more stimulus at its December meeting. Thirteen economists said the Fed would change its policy next in 2021, six said in 2022 and 15 said 2023.”.

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